Lecture: Conventional and Nuclear Deterrence on the Background of War in Ukraine 14/9 (NOTE: 10-13)

Lecturer: Kamal Makili-Aliyev

Lecture Slides: (Slides)

In this lecture, we will discuss the differences between conventional and nuclear deterrence in the contemporary frameworks of global power competitions and the raging war in Ukraine. We will look at the present-day situation between competing powers and try to define the limits of both conventional and nuclear deterrence. Additionally, we use the situation in Ukraine to analyze the pros (opportunities) and cons (risks) of each type of deterrence with regard to the maintenance of international peace and security.

Please note! The lecture will be complemented by 1 hour of the group discussion exercise that will ask groups to look at different scenarios, discuss them and shortly present their findings. Please have your laptops\tablets with you for the best experience and learning opportunities.

Study Questions:

1. What are the differences between conventional and nuclear types of deterrence? What are the strong and weak sides of each of the types?

2. Are both types of deterrence topical and important in contemporary relations between states? Can one or another be obsolete?

3. What can the war in Ukraine tell us about how different types of deterrence work in the contemporary world? What is problematic? What works?

Mandatory Reading:

Mueller, Karl (2018), 'Conventional Deterrence Redux: Avoiding Great Power Conflict in the 21st Century', Strategic Studies Quarterly, Vol. 12, No. 4, pp. 76-93

Wirtz, James (2018), 'How Does Nuclear Deterrence Differ from Conventional Deterrence?', Strategic Studies Quarterly, Vol. 12, No. 4, pp. 58-75
Horovitz, Liviuand Wachs, Lydia (2022), 'Russia’s Nuclear Threats in the War against Ukraine', SWP Comment, n. 29, April 2022.
Harries, Matthew (2022), 'Putin’s Brutal War Shows the Dilemmas of Nuclear Deterrence', Foreign Policy, Mar 22, 2012. Available from: https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/22/ukraine-putin-russia-nuclear/

Recommended Reading:

Boehlefeld M.G., Kathryn (2020), 'Sticks and Stones. Nuclear Deterrence and Conventional Conflict', Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs, Winter 2020, pp. 77-88. https://media.defense.gov/2020/Nov/23/2002540351/-1/-1/1/BOEHLEFELD.PDF

Mueller, Karl (2021), 'The Continuing Relevance of Conventional Deterrence.' In: Osinga, F., Sweijs, T. (eds) Netherlands Annual Review of Military Studies 2020. NL ARMS. T.M.C. Asser Press, The Hague, pp. 47-63. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-6265-419-8_4