Lecturer: Florian Kühn

Lecture Slides: (tba shortly before the lecture so that you can skip back and forward)

Imagine your neighbour is amassing weapons and spends days training with these weapons; would acquiring weapons for yourself be a logical reaction, just in case you had to defend yourself? Would you be able to convey the message that your own acquisition of weapons was intended purely for defence? Or would your own weapons seem threatening to your neighbour? These questions are at the heart of mutual perceptions which contribute to the dynamics of a Security Dilemma.

Using the war in Ukraine as example, this lecture looks into theoretical approaches to deterrence and how, within the concept of a 'Security Dilemma' (John H. Herz), it can have unintended consequences. It is important that you read Herz's classical description of the Security Dilemma, and the deterrence literature as we intend to synthezise both approaches. We will in this context discuss objectives and limits of both conventional and nuclear deterrence.

Study Questions:

1. Which aspects of a Security Dilemma relate to the War in Ukraine?

2. What can the war in Ukraine tell us about how different types of deterrence work in the contemporary world? What is problematic? What works?

3. Inhowfar are nuclear and conventional deterrence contributing to the Security Dilemma, or alleviating it?

4. In which ways is the Security Dilemma a liberal or a realist concept?

Mandatory Reading:

Herz, John H. (1950). Idealist Internationalism and the Security Dilemma. World Politics, 2(2), 157-180. doi:10.2307/2009187
Mueller, Karl (2018), 'Conventional Deterrence Redux: Avoiding Great Power Conflict in the 21st Century', Strategic Studies Quarterly, 12 (4), 76-93.

Recommended Reading:

Boehlefeld M.G., Kathryn (2020), 'Sticks and Stones. Nuclear Deterrence and Conventional Conflict', Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs, Winter 2020, pp. 77-88. https://media.defense.gov/2020/Nov/23/2002540351/-1/-1/1/BOEHLEFELD.PDF

Butterfield, Herbert (1951), History and Human Relations. London: Collins.

Harries, Matthew (2022), 'Putin’s Brutal War Shows the Dilemmas of Nuclear Deterrence', Foreign Policy, Mar 22, 2012. Available from: https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/22/ukraine-putin-russia-nuclear/

Mueller, Karl (2021), 'The Continuing Relevance of Conventional Deterrence.' In: Osinga, F., Sweijs, T. (eds) Netherlands Annual Review of Military Studies 2020. NL ARMS. T.M.C. Asser Press, The Hague, pp. 47-63. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-6265-419-8_4

Wirtz, James (2018), 'How Does Nuclear Deterrence Differ from Conventional Deterrence?', Strategic Studies Quarterly, Vol. 12, No. 4, pp. 58-75
Horovitz, Liviuand Wachs, Lydia (2022), 'Russia’s Nuclear Threats in the War against Ukraine', SWP Comment, n. 29, April 2022.